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September sales: Points, Trends and Patterns

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Condo sales have been driving the Jackson Hole real estate market in 2011. This slopeside unit at Four Seasons in Jackson Hole, however, is still on the market.

It’s been said that one is a point, two is a trend and three is a pattern.

Point: September real estate sales in Jackson Hole are on pace for 30 units and about $25 million in sales, with 19 reported as of September 19.

Trend: Sales in July and August were similar, with 48 sales for approximately $48 million. Third quarter 2011 is on pace for approximately 80 sales and about $75 million in sales, which will essentially be flat in year-over year unit sales and reflect a significant drop in average sales price. The ASP drop, however, will be due mainly to several large sales in September 2010, which boosted the monthly sales volume to $110 million.

Pattern: Through the first two quarters of 2011, unit sales rose 28 percent to 150 while sales volume rose only slightly to approximately $165 million. In general, first quarter 2011 was very strong, with a 57 percent increase year over year in units and second quarter was lackluster, with only a 7 percent bump.

On my Facebook page for Teton Realty Today and my Twitter feed, the focus is on the latest price reductions, under contracts and closed listings. However, it has also been said that to know where you are going it is important to know where you’ve been. And in Jackson Hole, even the busiest years average less than two sales, or “points,” per day.

I am fortunate to be able to augment my personal research and daily market information with some powerful, deep research provided by my brokerage, Jackson Hole Sotheby’s. Though we are fast approaching the end of the third quarter of 2011, a recently released report on real estate sales in Jackson Hole through July offers additional observations on the underlying market currents.

This graph compares the first six months of 2011 with previous years' sales in Jackson Hole.

Highlights of the 29-page, fact-filled and graph-a-riffic, PowerPoint presentation, which I can provide directly to you upon request at tetonrealtytoday@gmail.com, include:

  • Average sales price declined 9 percent during the first six months of 2011 year over year, and in five of the six months, reflecting a trend toward lower end condos and single-family homes.
  • The area north of Jackson (near the Jackson Hole Airport) reported a 48 percent increase in unit sales and a 53 percent increase in volume year over year during the first six months of 2011, the strongest corner of Teton County.
  • Teton Village showed a 81 percent increase in unit sales but just 6 percent in sales volume. Again, condo sales, particularly low-end condos, have been driving the market with 50 percent of all residential sales during the first two quarters of 2011.
  • Days on market during the first six months of 2011 is up 38 percent on residential properties to 280 (240 for condos, 321 for single-family homes).

Please contact me for a personalized look at the Jackson Hole real estate market.

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