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Hindsight in 2020: Jackson Hole real estate review

By   /  January 7, 2020  /  No Comments

Market hits $1 billion in sales volume for second year in a row to close out decade of tremendous growth.

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The record heights reached by the Jackson Hole real estate market in 2018 were duplicated in 2019, unofficially surpassing $1 billion in total sales volume for the second time.

Jackson Hole real estate sales topped $1 billion in 2019 for the second consecutive year as unit sales and sales volume mirrored almost exactly the record-breaking numbers set in 2018.

The numbers are slightly lower than $1 billion according to Teton County Multiple Listing Service*, which reported 532 sales – including residential, building site and farm and ranch properties – for a total sales volume of approximately $921.6 million. In 2018 the topline statistics were almost identical with 532 sales for $922 million in reported sales.

(On average about 20 percent of all deed transfers in Teton County, Wyoming, are not reported to the MLS so it is safe to say off-market sales pushed total sales volume above $1 billion in 2018 and 2019.)

The market previously topped out in 2007 when 581 units were sold (still a record) for a reported sales volume of $804 million. Total sales volume approached or may have slightly exceeded $1 billion that year as well. That peak, however, was followed by a steep decline in 2008 to about 275 sales for $375 million, a trend that continued in 2009, which saw just 225 transactions result in approximately $220 million in sales.

Vacant land sales near the Jackson Hole Airport helped boost sales volume for building sites to approximately $144 million in 2019.

But as the new decade began the market rebounded slowly and steadily until values returned to pre-recession highs segment by segment. Many micro-markets – such as single-family homes, county building sites, and Town of Jackson townhouses and development parcels – exceeded the highs of 2007 in the last two years. Overall, the Jackson Hole real estate market has more than quadrupled in annual sales volume and more than doubled unit sales since 2009.

[The overall market tracks similarly to the Teton Village market, which is explored extensively in “Teton Village real estate matures” posted in December]

Residential property breakdown

Looking at the residential home market in Jackson Hole (from Hoback Junction to the south to Moran Junction to the north and everything in between), there were 435 sales for approximately $777 million in sales volume*.

This is also almost identical to 2018, which saw 434 sales of condos, townhouses and single-family homes.

Residential sales highlights include:

  • Average sales price for all residential units were $1.79 million.
  • Top sales: Listed for $18.5 million, this 5-bed, 8,318-square-foot home on 13 acres located just south of Wilson sold after 88 days on market; the second-highest price home to sell was a Shooting Star 6-bed, 7,970-square-foot home on 1.79 acres built in 2019 after 67 days on market, listed for $17 million.
  • Least-expensive sales: Brookside studio in Town of Jackson with 448 square feet, listed for  $300K, sold after 71 days on market in April; Second least-expensive sale: Virginian 1-bed, 533-square-foot listed for $307K after 95 days on market in April.
  • Median sales: Wilson 2-bed, 1,008 square foot home built in 1964 on 1 acre, listed for $1.175 million; South Teton Village condo with 2 beds, 1,312 square feet built in 1971 after 85 days on market, listed for $1.185 million; $1.185m list Rafter J 3-bed, 1,724 square foot home built in 1985 on .3 acres updated in 2017, closed after 95 days on market.
  • In town of Jackson, 13 recently converted 1-bed apartments in the Virginian complex sold as individual condos below $339,000; A dozen Virginian 2-beds sold between $402,000 and 435,000.
  • Looking at distribution per price points, 196 of the 434 residential sales (or 45 percent) closed under $1 million; 136 were between $1 million to $2 million (or 31 percent); 41 closed between $2 million to $3 million (or 9 percent); 25 from $3 million to $4 million; eight from $4 million to $5 million; nine closed between $5 million and $6 million; 11 between $6 million and $10 million; and six sales exceeded $10 million.
The proverbial “cabin in the woods” can be found at Lost Creek Ranch, a three-season neighborhood in Grand Teton National Park.

Building Site breakdown

The building site market segment strengthened in 2019, with a 7 percent jump in units sold (from 64 to 69) and a boost of 44 percent in sales volume over 2018 to $144 million. The significant increase in sales volume is due in large part to four 35-acre ranch sales in Bar BC Ranch with a total list volume of approximately $33 million.

In terms of units and volume sold, however, both 2018 and 2019 represented a slowdown from 2017 when 89 units sold.  In 2016, there was more than $111 million in sales volume on 66 sales.

Building site sales highlights include:

  • Top sale: Outside of Bar BC Ranch, which reported the four highest-priced building site sales, the top closing was for a 16.67-acre lot near Wilson listed for $5.9 million and sold after 445 days on market.
  • Least-expensive sale: Two lots in Moran including 3 acres or less sold for $265,000 and $312,500; in town of Jackson a quarter-acre lot in Indian Trails sold in 38 days after being listed for $450,000.
  • Median sale: Fairways Estates 3.18-acre lot listed for $1.2 million sold after 165 days on market
Constructions crews are busy in all corners of Jackson Hole, including this team in Melody Ranch.

So what’s for sale as we welcome the new decade, and where will the market take us? Great question! I spend part of every day researching the market and identifying new options for Buyers. I share some of this information on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and here on my blog, and have for more than 10 years. To find out how we got here, please go through the archives at TetonRealtyToday.com.

To those planning on buying or selling in the near future, I provide directly personalized market information. What market segment interests you the most? Please contact me to start moving toward your Wyoming and Idaho real estate goals.

* Dozens of sales reported to Teton County MLS do not include final purchase price. To determine approximate sales volume, I multiplied the overall list volume for all properties by .96, the average percent of list price garnered for all reported residential sales. To approximate sales volume for vacant land sales, total list volume was multiplied by 93 percent of list price.

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