January sales figures, February preview and a final look at 2009

This graph shows January sales going back to 2002. While January 2010 represents a significant increase compared to January 2009, it remains one of the slowest Januarys in the last decade.

This graph shows January sales going back to 2002. While January 2010 represents a significant increase compared to January 2009, it remains one of the slowest Januarys in the last decade.

While I have already discussed January sales numbers in this Teton Realty Today post, this week my brokerage, Sotheby’s International Realty in Jackson Hole, provided a more complete roundup of the month’s sales as well as a thorough analysis of the year 2009. (I also covered 2009 more superficially in this post.)

I am happy to pass along this 56-page presentation as a PDF to anyone interested. It covers not only Teton County, WY, but also Teton County, ID, and Star Valley, WY, as well, in addition to graphs charting consumer confidence, unemployment figures and more.

Some of the deeper analysis available in this presentation I found most interesting included:

  • While it is true that January units and volume were up 174 percent and 194 percent respectively compared with 2009, as the above graph represents, 2010 was the second lowest January for both statistics since at least 2001.
  • January 2010 included 11 sales for a total sales volume of $21.7 million. January 2006 was the most vibrant of the past decade with more than 50 units sold for nearly $60 million.
  • Looking at February sales to date, as of Wednesday there were seven closed transactions for $20.1 million compared to four transactions for $2.3 million at this point in February 2009.
  • There are currently 36 pending sales in Teton County, WY. Of these, Sotheby’s is on the list side of 17 and on the sale side of 14. If you include Terra II, there are 54 pending sales. (Contact me for an explanation of why Terra II properties – which are listed by Sotheby’s – are often excluded from overall pending sales.)

As mentioned above, these statistics are the tip of the iceberg. True statistics geeks are encouraged to request a complete copy of the presentation. Additional graphs include:

  • Quarter-over-quarter percentage changes going back to Q1 2007.
  • Average sales price versus 2009 by month.
  • Teton County sales by region 2009 versus 2008.
  • Average sales price and days on market by Teton County region.
  • Average and median sales by property type.
  • Sales by price range (pie chart!).

Teton County sales average highest in West

This graph illustrates that while sales volume and units sold were down markedly in Teton County, WY, during the third quarter 0f 2009, the average sales price dipped only slightly from the high of 2008.

This graph illustrates that while sales volume and units sold were down markedly in Teton County, WY, during the third quarter 0f 2009, the average sales price dipped only slightly from the high of 2008.

The Western Mountain Resort Alliance (formerly known as the Rocky Mountain Resort Alliance) released third quarter real estate statistics for 12 resort communities similar to Teton County, WY, from Whistler, BC to Steamboat, CO.

Overall, this mountain of statistics mainly compares apples to oranges and is of little direct value to someone focused on buying and selling real estate in Jackson Hole (or any of the individual communities) but a few items seemed worth passing along.

  • Teton County was near the bottom in total units sold during the first three quarters of 2009 with 108 (Telluride recorded 102 and Big Sky just 87) but had the highest average sales price at $1.37 million.
  • Vail, CO, led all communities in total volume sold with $578 million on 560 total units sold for an average sales price of $1.03 million, nearly quadrupling Teton County’s $148 million.
  • While Grand County, CO, had by far the most active listings with 3,527, the region has just 190 licensed real estate agents, the fourth least among the dozen communities. Teton County reported 626 agents, Vail 734, and 834 for Park City, UT, the most.

The graph above represents third quarter stats for Teton County, WY, from 2006 to 2009. These also are broad-brush numbers but do a good job of reminding us of where we were, how we arrived at this point and perhaps indicating where the market is heading.

  • Listings were at historical highs with the total spiking above 900 for much of the third quarter compared to approximately 700 this time last year and less than 500 in 2006 and 2007. Current active listings number approximately 850.
  • Total number of units sold fell well below 100 in 2009, compared to more than 400 in 2006 and 2007.
  • Total volume sold barely topped $100 million in 2009 during the traditionally strongest quarter that saw nearly $400 million in 2008 and more than $600 million in 2007 (a record).
  • Average sales price, on the other hand, has edged only slightly down from its high of nearly $1.6 million in 2008 to $1.37 million, approximately the same as 2007.

Contact me for a copy of the entire report or a more complete analysis with a focus on Jackson Hole real estate.

November stats preview: Low end on a roll

Real estate sales have been improving in recent months in line with a minor uptick in consumer confidence.

Real estate sales have been improving in recent months in line with a minor uptick in consumer confidence.

It’s a little early to guess if November’s total number of closings will exceed the 2009 high of 29 recorded in October, but it appears unlikely.

So far this month there have been eight closings in Teton County and eight new pending sales, with 60 pending sales overall.

Additionally, barring a few big-ticket closings in the last week of the month, total sales as reported to the Teton County Multiple Listing Service will likely not exceed October’s total sales of $37,270,000, also a best for 2009. Remarkably, of the eight closings this month not one has surpassed $645,000 and the average is $437,500. Of the eight new pending listings, the highest list price is $759,000 and the average is $574,250.

Among the 60 pending listings, 20 are Terra II listings that have been in limbo for months. Of the 40 remaining pending listings, 18 are for properties listed below $1,000,000. Fourteen of those are listed between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000. The highest priced pending listing is a Teton Village home listed at $5,350,000.

Contact me for an analysis of what a strong return of the lower end of our market means to the broader housing market in Jackson Hole.